Wenger the Revenger: a preview on the EPL 2015/2016 title race

by parnolio

With the new Premier League season eagerly lurking around the corner, it’s time to get that crystal ball cleaned up again and take a close look at the main title contenders for the upcoming season.

Chelsea

The Blues are the reigning champions of course and have won last year’s trophy by quite a margin. If you add the fact that they’ve had a remarkably stable summer transfer window so far, you would expect them to be the big favorite for the upcoming season as well. They managed to hold on to all their key players – with Cech confusingly no longer belonging to that category – and don’t have to go through the trouble of fitting in a host of new players unfamiliar with club and country.

However, to conclude that the new champion is already known, would be a bit shortsighted. Not all is perfect at The Bridge, and apparent small problems in the previous campaign may very well turn into disasters in the new one. Predictability and lack of creativity were already a factor in the second half of last season, with a whole series of marginal victories as a result. Many of those matches could’ve ended in a draw or even gone the other way, so that leaves to suggest that maybe the margin last season was not quite as big as conceived.

Especially in games where Diego Costa was out injured, Chelsea suffered significant problems in terms of attacking and goal scoring, and it remains to be seen if Falcao will prove to be a good back-up. Last season at United and the Community Shield performance against Arsenal, already suggest otherwise, but the Colombian should be given some time evidently. Rémy, in any case, although a proven goal scorer and a skillful player, does not weigh on a defense like Costa does. An additional alternative for the Brazilian-Spanish streetfighter before the window closes, may prove vital for Chelsea.

On top of that, a supplementary injection of creativity, speed and flair in the attacking midfield area may be useful as well. Not to say that the qualities of players such as Hazard, Fabregas and Willian are insufficient to do the job – they’ve proven otherwise last season – but with no fresh blood coming in at all, the dangers of decompression and complacency after a title year are only just around the corner. I believe we’ve already witnessed a little bit of that in the same Community Shield fixture with Eden Hazard performing very unconvincingly and far away from the Cristiano and Messi standards which him and his coach aspire so much. This may very well turn out to be the little Belgian’s make or break season.

In conclusion, Chelsea is still the main force to be reckoned with, but no alternatives for Costa and Hazard could see them fall short of the mark. Even with proper signings, I expect the title race to be a lot tighter this season.

Arsenal

Aah, the eternal arch-enemy of the Blues. Can Wenger finally shake off his Mourinho complex and get the ultimate revenge? Was his first small victory over the Portuguese Cradle of Arrogance in the Community Shield an omen for what is to come? Well, I believe all the ingredients are there to make it work for the Gunners this time ’round.

Just like Chelsea, they have had a calm summer break. One big signing with Petr Cech not only offering a very safe and solid set of hands, but also – and perhaps more importantly – a good insight on Mourinho’s mind and tactics. No major outgoing transfers, but unlike their West-London rivals, there’s no risk of complacency at Arsenal as the hunger for the title will be bigger than ever. With the amount of technical quality and speed Arsenal have in their ranks, they should be able to outplay any team in the Premier League. Only Manchester City are at a comparable level.

One reservation, however, for the Gunners to make a genuine title claim this year: Oliver Giroud. The Frenchman hasn’t been able to produce the number of goals one would expect from a title contender’s main striker, and even if Arsenal’s goals come flying in from all angles and players, this may very well be what’s holding them back from being the true force they could be. A Sergio Agüero type center forward – admittedly they don’t come in hordes – is just what the doctor ordered.

However, Wenger doesn’t like splashing the cash and it appears he’s got his mind set on another Frenchman Karim Benzema and I for one am not convinced he’d fit well in the swift, technical team of Arsenal. So ultimately it’s perhaps not Giroud, but Wenger holding back the North-London force from reaching full potential. That said, I can see Arsenal coming very close this year. An ultimate neck-to-neck race with Chelsea seems quite likely and would give us a very thrilling season to look forward to.

Manchester City

Calm summer breaks seem to be the latest fashion, because the sky blues have been unusually calm over the past months as well. There is of course the much debated transfer of Raheem Sterling, but apart from strong Kevin De Bruyne rumors, not much else happening for the moment. Will that be enough to reenter the title debate?

In theory they have it all: an experienced defense, a skillful, speedy midfield and a striker who knows and shows no mercy. However, they had that last year as well, and it proved insufficient. Lapses of concentration seemed to be the most important cause, Yaya Touré appeared uninterested for the first half of the season while the likes of Kompany and Demichelis were slipping up more often than standing their ground. Young Belgian defender Jason Denayer is however returning from a very successful loan spell at Celtic Glasgow and may well pair up with his experienced fellow countryman in the coming season. A lot is expected from this very promising and ultra-quick defender, but still a teenager, one cannot expect him to turn the club’s mentality around and lead his team to a new crown.

The replacement of the polished pebble (Milner) by the raw diamond (Sterling) will not be a decisive factor in my opinion. Surely, the former Liverpool starlet in a good day can bring some extra juice to the Etihad, but is not yet a “champions maker” I fear. The possible signing of Kevin De Bruyne could however have an important impact on Yaya Touré’s future within the club, but with the moody Ivorian, it’s very hard to predict if for better or for worse.

In conclusion, a bit too many ifs and ifnots to really see City run away with it this year, but I’d be very surprised if they finished below 3rd position. Simply more quality and cohesion then their Manchester, Merseyside or White Hart Lane rivals.

Manchester United

No calm summer break for Louis Van Gaal. The Dutch madman has been aiming and shooting at pretty much every decent player that crossed his mind. This is right away my biggest concern with LVG: there seems to be no structure, system or pattern in what he does or wants to achieve with this United team. He keeps on switching, flipping tactics and players like he’s operating a pinball machine.

He tries to land the most impossible signings, Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale, without apparent success, and already gets rid of Di María before having an alternative. The same for Robin Van Persie: RVP may have been disappointing in the last campaign, but LVG sold him to Turkey before finding a replacement, leaving all of the attack in the hands of Rooney, Welbeck and Januzaj. With the former developing more and more into a midfield player, and the others lacking either consistency or quality, their striking options seem far from sufficient for making a title claim. Also, the restlessness and general cluelessness of their manager has to wear off somehow on the team as well.

The only positive for United is the signing of Sebastien Schweinsteiger. I’m convinced he’ll fit in beautifully and has exactly what it takes to become the next Roy Keane at Old Trafford. He would just need a better and more consistent team surrounding him to actually lead them to titles. The way United are shaping up for the moment, fourth place still is the maximum for them, and I expect them to be challenged severely for it by Liverpool this year.

Liverpool

Speaking of which, the Merseyside number one team (sorry Toffees!), despite of losing legend Steven Gerrard and starlet Raheem Sterling, seem to have improved vastly in comparison to last year. They have invested their incoming funds wisely in strong attacking options. Once Rodgers has a fully recovered squad, he can pick and choose between the likes of Sturridge, Benteke, Firminho, Origi, Ings, etc. If managed wisely (that is always going to be the question with “Deluded Brendan” of course) that is a true striking force that can tear down any opposition.

What they seem to have forgotten though, is to get a strong replacement for Steven Gerrard in midfield. A Schweinsteiger type of player who can lead his team to war. I just don’t believe “Hendo” is good enough for that role at the top level. If Liverpool really want to be involved in the title race again, they’d do well investing heavily in that department.

In any case, I’m expecting a rejuvenated and passionate Liverpool this year who’ll perform significantly better than last season. They should be able to challenge United for fourth place and I can see them coming out on top.

My top four prediction 2015/2016

1. Arsenal
2. Chelsea
3. Manchester City
4. Liverpool