The Three Goal Scorers Principle

by parnolio

In football you need to score goals to win. No one can argue with that, it’s a basic rule. In order to score goals, you need players who can score goals. It doesn’t get any simpler than that, I know, however that last bit is all too often forgotten even by some of the best managers in the world.

I will take two of my favorite teams as an example. Chelsea FC, club of my heart, and the Belgian National Team, my country. We’ll start this off with The Blues, because although they’re already having a pretty great season, disrespecting the Three Goal Scorers Principle is actually what keeps them from being the world dominating force that they could and probably should be.

If you look at their standard starting XI you will notice that they only have two proven goal scorers on the chalkboard: Diego Costa obviously a prolific goal scorer & Eden Hazard getting better and better at it (although not quite there yet). Fabregas used to be pretty good at it when playing for Arsenal and even for Barcelona, but he’s adopted a slightly different role nowadays and doesn’t seem to get in those goal scoring positions as often anymore. His assist rate however is off the charts.

Next up are the Brazilians Willian & Oscar. The first one plays right forward but hardly gets any goals nor assists. Don’t get me wrong, I think Willian is a lovely player, incredible work rate, fierce, always running at defenders, but just not quite getting there. Pretty much the same can be said for Oscar. He plays as Fabregas’ wingman nowadays so he doesn’t have such an attacking role anymore, but still should be scoring more goals than he does. Matic is obviously purely a defensive midfielder, and a pretty brilliant one to be honest, so he’s off the hook for my analysis.

Chelsea need to rely pretty much solely on the likes of Costa & Hazard to make the leather touch the netting. That quite simply is not enough. It doesn’t give you enough options to threaten your opponent. Sure, Hazard & Costa are such good players that they are still able to take their team top of the league, but the day will come that they need to face true world powers like Bayern Munich & Real Madrid, and it won’t work.

Any team that wants to be a force needs at least three good goal scorers on the pitch. It’s all about balance. Goalkeeper excluded, you ideally need five or six players for defending and five or four for attacking of which at least three specialize in scoring goals. Real Madrid, Barcelona & Bayern Munich lead by example. All of their attacking players know how to find the net eyes closed & hands tied behind the back. It’s the difference between getting scrappy victories or truly crushing your inferior opponents. It’s the difference between being a decent Champions League side or a bookie’s favorite.

My advice to Chelsea would be to replace one of their two Brazilians by a true goal scorer. They already have one warming the bench, new French signing Loïc Remy. Maybe he could play right forward, it’s worth the investigation I reckon. Otherwise it’s back to the transfer market for Chelsea, and after their terrific summer deals, money shouldn’t be an issue. Southampton’s Mané seems an excellent choice to me, if I have to think top of my head.

Oh yes, Belgium. Talk about scrappy victories. 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 that’s about as exciting as it ever gets when Belgium’s playing. They couldn’t even fire a single one past Wales in their latest home EC qualifier, and Belgium fans are left to wonder how that’s possible, with such world class players in their ranks. Same answer: not enough goal scorers.

Witsel: one of the best containing midfielders in the world, but five goals a season is about the maximum he’ll make. Nainggolan: great little fighter, having a sensational season at AS Roma, but he doesn’t get more than five a season either. De Bruyne: great playmaker, incredible assist record and one of the few players to find the net every once and a while for Belgium, but you can hardly call him a prolific scorer either. Hazard: just not the same player when wearing his red kit (who could blame him being a Blue), often lacking confidence, inspiration and efficiency, so even he won’t find the net for Belgium. Chadli: he’s a pretty decent goal scorer, but his record for Belgium is pretty pathetic as well. Last up is either Benteke or Origi. The first one is a proven goal scorer in England, the latter is an excellent player but not a goal scorer. So Belgium have one or two goal scorers in their XI at best.

Belgium of course don’t have the option to scan the transfer market, they need to make do with the ca. 10 million Belgians inhabiting planet Earth. Are there any alternatives? Maybe. Dries Mertens (Napoli) has always found the net pretty easily. Left forward who scores between 10-15 goals a season, 15-20 when he used to play for PSV but any mammal with two legs can score goals in the Dutch league & Mertens is not in the best period of his career. Kevin Mirallas (Everton) is a proven goal scorer as well. He’s an offensive midfielder nowadays but he used to play as a striker and was a guarantee for about 20 goals a season. Ferreira-Carrasco of AS Monaco & Michy Batshuayi of Olympique Marseille are showing some promise as well, although it’s probably a bit too early for them still.

How can Belgium resolve this then? First of all, I think they should change their formation first, from the 4-3-2-1 that they are playing now to a 3-4-3 or perhaps a 3-5-2. Two problems solved at once: they’re finally rid of the full-backs that they never had in the first place & there is room for an extra attacker (goal scorer). Belgium could play Vertonghen – Kompany – Alderweireld at the back, Chadli – Nainggolan – Witsel – De Bruyne in midfield & Hazard – Benteke – Mirallas up front. That way you have five defensive minded players with Nainggolan & Witsel backing up from midfield & five attacking players who should all be able to find the net occasionally. In the 3-5-2 you could play with Chadli – Nainggolan – Hazard – Witsel – De Bruyne in midfield & Benteke – Mirallas up front or if he really starts making a name for himself Benteke – Batshuayi.

So that’s that, good luck to both sides implementing my changes and improving their goal scoring & thus winning record. Cheers!